The finding
Across 6,314 results filings, the median share was -1.49% over the next 15 days, and only 41.2% ended higher. Results are the most-watched filing a company makes, and in this dataset they are followed by drift downwards — while order wins and mergers drift up. This is a record of what happened, not a prediction of what will.
Every tracked filing type, 15 days on
Bar shows the middle half of outcomes; the line is the median. Only filing types with an unambiguous direction and at least 100 observations are published.
By company size
The same filing lands very differently depending on how large the company is. 15-day median, groups with at least 100 observations.
| Filing type / size | Median | Positive | Filings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend | |||
| Large Cap | -0.09% | 49.6% | 349 |
| Small Cap | -0.49% | 46.9% | 465 |
| Mid Cap | -1.13% | 44.2% | 303 |
| Micro Cap | -1.17% | 44.5% | 335 |
| Financial Results | |||
| Large Cap | -0.20% | 48.3% | 1,013 |
| Mid Cap | -1.31% | 44.0% | 1,020 |
| Micro Cap | -1.56% | 40.1% | 2,342 |
| Small Cap | -2.18% | 38.9% | 1,647 |
| Merger / Acquisition | |||
| Micro Cap | +3.65% | 62.8% | 379 |
| Small Cap | +2.85% | 60.7% | 397 |
| Mid Cap | +1.34% | 58.0% | 283 |
| Large Cap | +1.26% | 59.5% | 395 |
| Order Win | |||
| Large Cap | +2.33% | 60.7% | 155 |
| Small Cap | +1.49% | 55.3% | 452 |
| Micro Cap | -0.13% | 48.9% | 423 |
| Mid Cap | -0.26% | 48.8% | 170 |
How this is measured
- Source. BSE's official daily bhavcopy — the exchange's own end-of-day record for every listed scrip, not a third-party feed.
- Anchor. The close of the first trading day on or after the filing. The initial move on the announcement is already in that starting price, so these figures show the drift afterwards.
- One observation per filing. Never several days from the same filing, which would let heavily-traded names count more than once.
- Median, not average. One extreme microcap cannot move a published figure. The bar shows the interquartile range so the spread is visible.
- Exclusions. Windows containing a bonus issue or stock split (a 1:2 split reads as −50%), illiquid counters that barely traded, and changes beyond ±150%.
- Filing types. Only discrete events with an unambiguous direction. Categories that mix opposite events — a rating upgrade with a downgrade, a favourable court order with a penalty — are excluded, because a single median across opposites means nothing at any sample size.
- Minimum sample. Nothing below 100 observations is published, enforced in the database itself.
Important. This page is published for information and education only. ForgeUp is not registered with SEBI as a Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser, and nothing here is a recommendation, an opinion on any individual security, or an offer to buy or sell. These are historical statistics about categories of corporate announcement; past behaviour does not indicate future results, and the wide spread shown above means individual outcomes varied enormously. Securities investment is subject to market risk. Please consult a SEBI-registered adviser before making any investment decision. See our full disclaimer.
Recomputed nightly from BSE end-of-day data · All BSE filings · Order book