For many Indian retail investors, Adani Power has been a stock to watch. Now, IIFL Capital has initiated coverage on the company, making a bold long-term forecast: they believe Adani Power’s EBITDA could quadruple by fiscal years 2033-2035. This isn’t just a casual prediction; it’s backed by a detailed analysis of the company’s aggressive growth plans and strategic moves.
Quick Highlights: What Happened on July 07, 2026
- IIFL’s Target Price: IIFL Capital has set a target price of Rs 240 for Adani Power.
- EBITDA Growth Forecast: The brokerage estimates Adani Power’s EBITDA could quadruple by FY33-35E.
- Massive Capacity Expansion: Adani Power plans to nearly double its operational capacity from 17 GW to over 40 GW in the next decade.
- Strategic Asset Acquisitions: The company acquired 7.3 GW of stressed assets at an average cost significantly below replacement value.
- Market Leadership: Adani Power has become India’s most valuable listed power firm, surpassing NTPC in 2026.
Key Market Data — July 07, 2026
| Metric | Value (as of July 07, 2026) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Adani Power | Rs 217 | Down 1.30% |
| 52-Week High | Rs 254.20 | Achieved on May 29, 2026 |
| 52-Week Low | Rs 110.45 | Achieved on Aug 07, 2025 |
| Market Cap | Rs 4,27,715.24 Cr | As of July 06, 2026 |
| Volume | 3.66 crore shares | Traded on July 06, 2026 |
Why It Happened: The Real Story Behind July 07, 2026’s Move
While Adani Power shares saw a slight dip today, the big news is IIFL Capital’s initiation of coverage, highlighting a robust long-term growth trajectory. What exactly makes IIFL so confident about Adani Power’s potential to quadruple its EBITDA by FY33-35E? It boils down to a multi-pronged strategy focused on aggressive capacity expansion, smart asset acquisition, and diversification.
1. Aggressive Capacity Expansion and Project Pipeline?
Adani Power is not just growing; it’s expanding at an unprecedented pace. The company boasts a 23.7 GW thermal power pipeline, which is even larger than NTPC’s planned thermal capacity additions. This ambitious plan is expected to nearly double Adani Power’s operational capacity from its current 17 GW to over 40 GW within the next decade. This significant increase in generation capacity is a primary driver for future revenue and, consequently, EBITDA growth.
2. Strategic Acquisition of Stressed Assets?
A key part of Adani Power’s strategy involves acquiring stressed thermal assets at deeply discounted valuations. For example, the company has assembled a 7.3 GW portfolio at an average acquisition cost of approximately Rs 42 million per MW. This is significantly lower than the roughly Rs 100 million per MW required for new, greenfield projects. These cost-effective acquisitions are now generating industry-leading returns, boosting profitability.
3. Diversification and Forward-Looking Strategies?
Beyond thermal power, Adani Power is also looking to diversify its energy portfolio. The company has plans for future ventures into nuclear power, targeting 10 GW capacity by 2035, and hydro power through a 5 GW joint venture with Druk Green Power in Bhutan. Furthermore, it aims to expand its customer base beyond traditional state distribution companies (DISCOMs) by supplying power to commercial and industrial (C&I) consumers. This broadens revenue streams and reduces reliance on a single customer segment.
The Broader Picture: What This Means for Indian Markets
Adani Power’s aggressive growth strategy, as highlighted by IIFL, reflects the broader demand for power in India. The country’s surging electricity needs, partly driven by significant investments in green-powered data centers by the Adani Group, are creating a robust environment for power generators. This trend suggests that companies with strong execution capabilities and diversified energy portfolios are well-positioned for long-term growth.
The company’s outperformance, having surpassed Infosys in market capitalization and becoming India’s 11th most valuable company, indicates strong investor confidence in its growth trajectory. However, it’s worth noting that IIFL also flagged potential risks such as execution delays, challenges in signing Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), weak spot electricity tariffs, and increasing competition from battery energy storage systems. These factors could influence the pace of growth.
What the Data Shows for Investors
The data indicates a strong growth outlook for Adani Power, particularly in the long term. IIFL forecasts an EBITDA Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of about 20% between FY26 and FY29 as new projects come online. This suggests a significant increase in operational profitability in the coming years. Free cash flow from operations is also expected to rise substantially, from Rs 170 billion in FY26 to Rs 570 billion upon full portfolio buildout.
Despite the strong growth potential, the stock is currently trading at around 4.6x FY28 estimated price-to-book value, which IIFL believes does not fully reflect its expansion prospects. The 52-week high of Rs 254.20, reached on May 29, 2026, shows the stock’s recent upward momentum. However, the current price of Rs 217 on July 07, 2026, is below this peak, indicating some consolidation. Investors should consider these data points in the context of their own investment goals.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. What is IIFL’s target price for Adani Power?
IIFL Capital has initiated coverage on Adani Power with a target price of Rs 240. This target is based on the company’s large growth pipeline, improving profitability, and industry-leading asset base.
2. How much EBITDA growth does IIFL expect for Adani Power?
IIFL estimates that Adani Power’s EBITDA could quadruple by fiscal years 2033-2035. They also project a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% for EBITDA between FY26 and FY29.
3. What are the main drivers for Adani Power’s projected growth?
The primary drivers include a massive thermal power pipeline of 23.7 GW, strategic acquisitions of stressed assets at low costs, and diversification into nuclear, hydro, and commercial & industrial (C&I) power supply.
4. What risks did IIFL highlight for Adani Power’s outlook?
IIFL flagged several risks, including potential execution delays in projects, slower-than-expected Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) signings, weak spot electricity tariffs, and increasing competition from battery energy storage systems.
The Bottom Line
IIFL Capital’s latest report paints a picture of significant long-term growth for Adani Power, driven by its ambitious expansion plans and strategic asset management. While the stock saw a minor dip today, the core message is about the company’s potential to quadruple its EBITDA by FY33-35E. This outlook is rooted in Adani Power’s ability to expand capacity, acquire assets smartly, and diversify its energy sources, offering a clear understanding of the factors shaping its future.
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