Synopsis: Shares of India’s upstream oil and gas producers, ONGC and Oil India, rallied up to 5% on Monday, March 2, 2026. This surge stands in stark contrast to a broader market crash, as the escalation of the US-Iran conflict pushed international crude oil prices to their highest levels since early 2025, significantly boosting revenue outlooks for domestic explorers.
Upstream Energy Stocks Surge 5% as Brent Hits $82
While the Sensex plummeted 1,200 points today, the “upstream” energy segment emerged as a rare beneficiary of the geopolitical turmoil.
Brent crude futures jumped 11% to touch $82.37 per barrel following reports of coordinated military strikes in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
For producers, higher global benchmarks translate directly into improved realizations for every barrel of oil extracted.
Winners: Upstream Producers (ONGC, Oil India)
Upstream companies are direct beneficiaries of rising crude prices because their selling price is linked to international benchmarks.
- ONGC: Shares hit a new 52-week high of ₹293, jumping 5% in early trade. The stock is currently trading above all major moving averages (5-day, 20-day, and 200-day), signaling strong bullish momentum.
- Oil India: The stock surged 4.5% to hit ₹505.50.
Brokerages like JM Financial suggest that for every $1 increase in crude, the EBITDA of these companies improves significantly.
However, analysts warn that a further spike above $90 could invite “Windfall Taxes” from the government to cap super-normal profits.
Losers: OMCs and Paint Stocks (BPCL, Asian Paints)
The same price spike that benefits producers is a major headwind for “downstream” users and marketers.
- Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs): Shares of BPCL, HPCL, and IOC tanked between 5% and 6%. As the biggest buyers of crude, these firms face a massive “under-recovery” risk if they are unable to pass on the $10/barrel spike to consumers at the pump.
- Paint & Tyre Sectors: Asian Paints and Berger Paints fell over 3%. Crude oil derivatives account for nearly 40% of the raw material costs for paint companies. A $1 increase in crude typically dents their EBITDA margins by approximately 0.2%.
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The “Hormuz Risk” Premium
The market is currently pricing in a structural shift rather than a temporary spike. With roughly 20% of global oil flows passing through the Strait of Hormuz—and nearly 40% of India’s imports transiting this route—the “geopolitical premium” is now estimated at $20–$40 per barrel.
If the blockage remains structural, energy experts at Economic Times and NDTV Profit predict crude could test the $100–$110 range, forcing the Indian government to either slash excise duties or allow a sharp hike in retail fuel prices to save OMC balance sheets.
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